Ok... bear with me, I'll try and write what makes sense to me xD Do read it critically though, as I can't say I'm fully convinced about it.
The following was just posted:
Anaxagore
Please, no one shares its PM time at the moment.
As Virt said it might be random, and it will probably be max 2 minutes different..
but we have absolutely nothing else to rely on at the moment.
And also quoted + responded to in the next post. Then what happens? *Enter Muz*
What does he do? Neglect the entire topic and blast a bomb into the ether.
This is not the Muz I know. Granted, I barely know anyone here you might say... as I've only been around since the start of this month and been around for 1 mafia game.... alas, I feel this behaviour does not fit the Muz I think I know. Now that is already ONLY with regard to the action he takes of posting what he posts. Now if we also scrutinise the content... yes, the writing fits him, but the coming up with such a plan? I doubt it. I'm not giving negative/positive value to the plan, for now - but even just getting that plan - I do not think it's a 'Muz Original'.
That said, I think he's being puppeteered. I can make some guesses on who the puppeteer might be, but I'll refrain from that for the time being. What might be more interesting, is to poll what the affiliation of this puppeteer might be. Town? Mafia? Who's to say.
If my theory holds (it might not - it's just my theory - so please, do bombard it with your visions), Muz has been contacted by at least 1 person. This person is either:
- The vigi himself => Trying to trap the mafia while staying 'safe' himself (mafia will go after Muz, he's the 'dangerous' vigi, all out in the open without protection).
- The IC => I can't really think of a logic here....
- A simple townie => Trying to be the hero and 'solve/crack' this enigma of 2 wolves hidden in a flock of 8 'sheep'
- One of the mafia => Now this is tricky..... on a first glance... this doesn't make sense... mafia can't risk losing 1 of themselves... but on the other hand, if they manage to manipulate 1 person, they can guarantee an early victory
Now........ my assumption would then be that this person is rather cunning - this would be my main lead to pinpointing who the puppeteer would be. Problem remains... even if we manage to unmask him, how do we know whether to trust him? This is where I'm stuck at now (haven't really been diving deep into yet, time is a restriction atm :<
. Also, not only cunning, but also a bit of an adrenaline junky? Likes to take risk? Because EITHER both this person and Muz are mafia and can therefore trust one another, OR this person and Muz are NOT able to trust one another.......... we're on a slippery slope right here.
So that's just the one post from Anax, quoted by me, followed by a blob of info by Muz.
Haven't looked into the posts that follow much at all - probably should do that to converge to a main suspect.
From a first glance, a few things that make me wonder:
Why does Anax trust Muz so quickly and easily? Or at least, make it come across as such? He starts from the principle of just simply believing it, unless it gets debunked?
Somewhat odd reply by Jimi - why does he start by 'defending' against my earlier post? Due to this new input from Muz, that isn't relevant at all anymore at this point in time. Then again... if I'm honest... I would probably be nittpicking about it if he didn't reply on my post there... so I guess it's actually a pretty logical post... (yeah... I'm writing while I'm thinking, ghehe, might not be the best option here :p)
First post by V98. Although odd to others, I believe I would myself also act like that. Extensive explanation follows later - why? Because I would want people to think for themselves, rather than just piggybacking on my train of thoughts. As this would grant them the most flexibility. If my thoughts are correct, they can say theyve been with them too, if they turn out false, they can just bash me.
Syg: Some posts rather insightful, some blurry - I would mark him as an observant townie.
Elysium - I can't 'read' him. Everything is possible.
Hoodlum - I'd say he's very inquisitive and gives effort to steer us towards the right path. Or guide us to stay on the right path. Questionable whether his right path, is the righteous path. I do like his play so far though, not afraid of being bold, so could very easily be townie as well.
His last few posts are confusing me though - Syg cleared it up. I did not miss out on the roles being out in the open, I did not think it was impossible for someone (e.g. Muz) to think of 'fake role post'. I just do not believe that Muz' post is genuinely coming from him, it looks doctored. Why would he be rather absent in the topic and then post what he post, even though Anax, a respected mafia player on this website, had just asked for people to NOT do that? Explicitly. It just doesn't add up to me.
Everyone seems to be involved with the game this time, no AWOL people - that's good.
I'll be on the road in about an hour for 3 hours, then quickly check in here again and hope to see more consensus. Although I assumed we'd have plenty of time, it does get a bit tight now... about 12h left till the deadline.
If there is indeed no vigi counter claim coming out, then I suppose we'll be FORCED to believe that Muz is (in contact with) the vigi. Staying silent if you are vigi, might be rather detrimental to town at this point... furthermore, as a last resort (if stuff remains fishy, we're going all paranoid here or something), I guess the IC should perhaps launch his/her action... then we should at least be somewhat 'secure' of the option in which Muz is actually being controlled by the mafia. I have said before that I did not want the IC to come out already and if this thing with Muz hadn't happened, I'd still be against the IC popping up (I really do think the IC will just die that night..... mafia can't risk keeping the role alive - or are there scenario's possible in which they'd prefer to DO keep it around?), but now... it might be inevitable...
I do not want to (micro)manage this game, so please do give your own inputs on what YOU feel should happen. THIS is my vision (rather unorganised presented ;d).
-Alex
Ok... bear with me, I'll try and write what makes sense to me xD Do read it critically though, as I can't say I'm fully convinced about it.
The following was just posted:
[quote=Anaxagore]Please, no one shares its PM time at the moment.
As Virt said it might be random, and it will probably be max 2 minutes different..
but we have absolutely nothing else to rely on at the moment. [/quote]
And also quoted + responded to in the next post. Then what happens? *Enter Muz*
What does he do? Neglect the entire topic and blast a bomb into the ether.
This is not the Muz I know. Granted, I barely know anyone here you might say... as I've only been around since the start of this month and been around for 1 mafia game.... alas, I feel this behaviour does not fit the Muz I think I know. Now that is already ONLY with regard to the action he takes of posting what he posts. Now if we also scrutinise the content... yes, the writing fits him, but the coming up with such a plan? I doubt it. I'm not giving negative/positive value to the plan, for now - but even just getting that plan - I do not think it's a 'Muz Original'.
That said, I think he's being puppeteered. I can make some guesses on who the puppeteer might be, but I'll refrain from that for the time being. What might be more interesting, is to poll what the affiliation of this puppeteer might be. Town? Mafia? Who's to say.
If my theory holds (it might not - it's just my theory - so please, do bombard it with your visions), Muz has been contacted by at least 1 person. This person is either:
[list type=decimal]
[li]The vigi himself => Trying to trap the mafia while staying 'safe' himself (mafia will go after Muz, he's the 'dangerous' vigi, all out in the open without protection).[/li]
[li]The IC => I can't really think of a logic here....[/li]
[li]A simple townie => Trying to be the hero and 'solve/crack' this enigma of 2 wolves hidden in a flock of 8 'sheep'[/li]
[li]One of the mafia => Now this is tricky..... on a first glance... this doesn't make sense... mafia can't risk losing 1 of themselves... but on the other hand, if they manage to manipulate 1 person, they can guarantee an early victory[/li]
[/list]
Now........ my assumption would then be that this person is rather cunning - this would be my main lead to pinpointing who the puppeteer would be. Problem remains... even if we manage to unmask him, how do we know whether to trust him? This is where I'm stuck at now (haven't really been diving deep into yet, time is a restriction atm :<). Also, not only cunning, but also a bit of an adrenaline junky? Likes to take risk? Because EITHER both this person and Muz are mafia and can therefore trust one another, OR this person and Muz are NOT able to trust one another.......... we're on a slippery slope right here.
So that's just the one post from Anax, quoted by me, followed by a blob of info by Muz.
Haven't looked into the posts that follow much at all - probably should do that to converge to a main suspect.
From a first glance, a few things that make me wonder:
Why does Anax trust Muz so quickly and easily? Or at least, make it come across as such? He starts from the principle of just simply believing it, unless it gets debunked?
Somewhat odd reply by Jimi - why does he start by 'defending' against my earlier post? Due to this new input from Muz, that isn't relevant at all anymore at this point in time. Then again... if I'm honest... I would probably be nittpicking about it if he didn't reply on my post there... so I guess it's actually a pretty logical post... (yeah... I'm writing while I'm thinking, ghehe, might not be the best option here :p)
First post by V98. Although odd to others, I believe I would myself also act like that. Extensive explanation follows later - why? Because I would want people to think for themselves, rather than just piggybacking on my train of thoughts. As this would grant them the most flexibility. If my thoughts are correct, they can say theyve been with them too, if they turn out false, they can just bash me.
Syg: Some posts rather insightful, some blurry - I would mark him as an observant townie.
Elysium - I can't 'read' him. Everything is possible.
Hoodlum - I'd say he's very inquisitive and gives effort to steer us towards the right path. Or guide us to stay on the right path. Questionable whether his right path, is the righteous path. I do like his play so far though, not afraid of being bold, so could very easily be townie as well.
His last few posts are confusing me though - Syg cleared it up. I did not miss out on the roles being out in the open, I did not think it was impossible for someone (e.g. Muz) to think of 'fake role post'. I just do not believe that Muz' post is genuinely coming from him, it looks doctored. Why would he be rather absent in the topic and then post what he post, even though Anax, a respected mafia player on this website, had just asked for people to NOT do that? Explicitly. It just doesn't add up to me.
Everyone seems to be involved with the game this time, no AWOL people - that's good.
I'll be on the road in about an hour for 3 hours, then quickly check in here again and hope to see more consensus. Although I assumed we'd have plenty of time, it does get a bit tight now... about 12h left till the deadline.
If there is indeed no vigi counter claim coming out, then I suppose we'll be FORCED to believe that Muz is (in contact with) the vigi. Staying silent if you are vigi, might be rather detrimental to town at this point... furthermore, as a last resort (if stuff remains fishy, we're going all paranoid here or something), I guess the IC should perhaps launch his/her action... then we should at least be somewhat 'secure' of the option in which Muz is actually being controlled by the mafia. I have said before that I did not want the IC to come out already and if this thing with Muz hadn't happened, I'd still be against the IC popping up (I really do think the IC will just die that night..... mafia can't risk keeping the role alive - or are there scenario's possible in which they'd prefer to DO keep it around?), but now... it might be inevitable...
I do not want to (micro)manage this game, so please do give your own inputs on what YOU feel should happen. THIS is my vision (rather unorganised presented ;d).
-Alex