Mafia game thread
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Hoodlum wrote:
sooo. if i replace my name in any of the roles and say...im that, does that make you trust me? well, i understand that you wouldn't trust me. but muz is getting a pass?

am i missing something? u guys realize the roles were given out at the start of the thread?

Spoiler (click to show)
Hoodlum is online.
Hoodlum wrote:
let's try it. I'll make it look professional like.

Spoiler (click to show)
Hoodlum is online.
Hoodlum wrote:
i mean, it's a full proof plan against newbies, but you guys aren't newbies.
obviously, muz and partner is maybe taking advantage of the fact that some of us miss the roles given out by kyla. maybe it was modified at a later time, im only just reading everything now. maybe it wasn't there before?

can you believe alexcheckmate missed it?

AlexCheckMate
My spideysense is tingling - something is wrong here.

I do not believe Muz just came up with what he did - there is more going on - what? I dunno.
For the time being, I do not have the time to look into it properly - hope to do so in ~150min from now (not too long then either... traveling for the weekend).

-Alex

muz didnt come up with anything. alex surely didn't miss it at the start, that's uncharacteristic of alex..
so im gonna gather that kyla modified it later and it was missed that way.

Hoodlum is online.
Sygmassacre wrote:
What the smurf are you talking about hood? Alex is saying muz didnt claim truthfully, not that he didnt make up the role pm. But since no one has counter claimed there is no use lynching muz. If he isnt who he says then the real vig will shoot him N1. Kyla already confirmed that the vig and mafia kill each other simultaneously so either way muz is dead before D2 if hes lying. If V98 flips vig then muz is lynched next and the IC can use their reveal to out themselves leaving the mafia sticking out like a sore thumb
A Harmonic Generator Intermodulator
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Sygmassacre wrote:
And if V98 is town then he only has himself to blame for not explaining his reasons for voting muz
A Harmonic Generator Intermodulator
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AlexCheckMate wrote:
Ok... bear with me, I'll try and write what makes sense to me xD Do read it critically though, as I can't say I'm fully convinced about it.

The following was just posted:

Anaxagore
Please, no one shares its PM time at the moment.
As Virt said it might be random, and it will probably be max 2 minutes different..
but we have absolutely nothing else to rely on at the moment.

And also quoted + responded to in the next post. Then what happens? *Enter Muz*
What does he do? Neglect the entire topic and blast a bomb into the ether.

This is not the Muz I know. Granted, I barely know anyone here you might say... as I've only been around since the start of this month and been around for 1 mafia game.... alas, I feel this behaviour does not fit the Muz I think I know. Now that is already ONLY with regard to the action he takes of posting what he posts. Now if we also scrutinise the content... yes, the writing fits him, but the coming up with such a plan? I doubt it. I'm not giving negative/positive value to the plan, for now - but even just getting that plan - I do not think it's a 'Muz Original'.

That said, I think he's being puppeteered. I can make some guesses on who the puppeteer might be, but I'll refrain from that for the time being. What might be more interesting, is to poll what the affiliation of this puppeteer might be. Town? Mafia? Who's to say.

If my theory holds (it might not - it's just my theory - so please, do bombard it with your visions), Muz has been contacted by at least 1 person. This person is either:

  • The vigi himself => Trying to trap the mafia while staying 'safe' himself (mafia will go after Muz, he's the 'dangerous' vigi, all out in the open without protection).
  • The IC => I can't really think of a logic here....
  • A simple townie => Trying to be the hero and 'solve/crack' this enigma of 2 wolves hidden in a flock of 8 'sheep'
  • One of the mafia => Now this is tricky..... on a first glance... this doesn't make sense... mafia can't risk losing 1 of themselves... but on the other hand, if they manage to manipulate 1 person, they can guarantee an early victory

Now........ my assumption would then be that this person is rather cunning - this would be my main lead to pinpointing who the puppeteer would be. Problem remains... even if we manage to unmask him, how do we know whether to trust him? This is where I'm stuck at now (haven't really been diving deep into yet, time is a restriction atm :<;). Also, not only cunning, but also a bit of an adrenaline junky? Likes to take risk? Because EITHER both this person and Muz are mafia and can therefore trust one another, OR this person and Muz are NOT able to trust one another.......... we're on a slippery slope right here.

So that's just the one post from Anax, quoted by me, followed by a blob of info by Muz.
Haven't looked into the posts that follow much at all - probably should do that to converge to a main suspect.
From a first glance, a few things that make me wonder:

Why does Anax trust Muz so quickly and easily? Or at least, make it come across as such? He starts from the principle of just simply believing it, unless it gets debunked?
Somewhat odd reply by Jimi - why does he start by 'defending' against my earlier post? Due to this new input from Muz, that isn't relevant at all anymore at this point in time. Then again... if I'm honest... I would probably be nittpicking about it if he didn't reply on my post there... so I guess it's actually a pretty logical post... (yeah... I'm writing while I'm thinking, ghehe, might not be the best option here :p)
First post by V98. Although odd to others, I believe I would myself also act like that. Extensive explanation follows later - why? Because I would want people to think for themselves, rather than just piggybacking on my train of thoughts. As this would grant them the most flexibility. If my thoughts are correct, they can say theyve been with them too, if they turn out false, they can just bash me.
Syg: Some posts rather insightful, some blurry - I would mark him as an observant townie.
Elysium - I can't 'read' him. Everything is possible.
Hoodlum - I'd say he's very inquisitive and gives effort to steer us towards the right path. Or guide us to stay on the right path. Questionable whether his right path, is the righteous path. I do like his play so far though, not afraid of being bold, so could very easily be townie as well.
His last few posts are confusing me though - Syg cleared it up. I did not miss out on the roles being out in the open, I did not think it was impossible for someone (e.g. Muz) to think of 'fake role post'. I just do not believe that Muz' post is genuinely coming from him, it looks doctored. Why would he be rather absent in the topic and then post what he post, even though Anax, a respected mafia player on this website, had just asked for people to NOT do that? Explicitly. It just doesn't add up to me.

Everyone seems to be involved with the game this time, no AWOL people - that's good.
I'll be on the road in about an hour for 3 hours, then quickly check in here again and hope to see more consensus. Although I assumed we'd have plenty of time, it does get a bit tight now... about 12h left till the deadline.

If there is indeed no vigi counter claim coming out, then I suppose we'll be FORCED to believe that Muz is (in contact with) the vigi. Staying silent if you are vigi, might be rather detrimental to town at this point... furthermore, as a last resort (if stuff remains fishy, we're going all paranoid here or something), I guess the IC should perhaps launch his/her action... then we should at least be somewhat 'secure' of the option in which Muz is actually being controlled by the mafia. I have said before that I did not want the IC to come out already and if this thing with Muz hadn't happened, I'd still be against the IC popping up (I really do think the IC will just die that night..... mafia can't risk keeping the role alive - or are there scenario's possible in which they'd prefer to DO keep it around?), but now... it might be inevitable...

I do not want to (micro)manage this game, so please do give your own inputs on what YOU feel should happen. THIS is my vision (rather unorganised presented ;d).

-Alex
“Gravitation cannot be held responsible for people falling in love. How on earth can you explain in terms of chemistry and physics so important a biological phenomenon as first love? Put your hand on a stove for a minute and it seems like an hour. Sit with that special girl for an hour and it seems like a minute. That's relativity.”

― Albert Einstein
Virtuosity98 wrote:
Wow, someone (Alex) is thinking logically! Thank you!

Ok, here I am a little late. Probably too late to save myself. While that's sad for town, it's not too sad for me. People seem determined to kill me so I probably wouldn't make it past day 2 anyway. I'm not denying the possibility of other scenarios, but this is what the evidence currently pointing towards. From now on I'm only going to write what I deem absolutely necessary, to make sure that no-one gets lost in superfluous details.

Reasons why Muz role claim could mean he is mafia:
1. Utterly pointless if he is a townie. Muz is not really a noob, it's his third game. He certainly understood the simple role of Vigilante and its high importance for the town win. Since he even calls himself a noob, that is evidence that he knows it's a dumb move, and yet he goes ahead with the claim. Mafia?
2. Useful if he is mafia. Could be mafia trying to get the real Vigilante to expose hinself in the thread, so they can kill him in the night. Mafia?
3. (I admit this reason is very tenuous) Muz role claim. 06:22. Seems fabricated. Why would it take Kyla 4 whole minutes to get the pre-written Role PMs out, but then somehow work so fast as to be able to post in the thread AND edit that post at 06:23? Mafia?
4. Anax seems to be working with Muz: He posted immediately after Muz in the thread; Anax messaged me immediately after I voted to Lynch Muz, defending him; he is also defending Muz constantly in the thread. Also bear in mind that Muz has never decided to lead in the past, but much prefers direction from other players. He would not claim Vigilante without being explicitly told to do so. Having watched first hand as Anax did this exact same thing with Paulcha last game, I recognise that the same thing is probably happening this time. So it seems clear they're working together... But how can Anax trust Muz? There is no evidence at this point. Could both be mafia executing a master-plan, banking that we would never lynch the claimed Vigilante. Both Mafia?

On the other hand:
- Anax seems to be working with Muz (evidence above). Could mean Anax is Vigilante, and is giving his role to Muz. Muz claims, no-one refutes the claim, mafia target Muz in the night, Vigilante lives on. Nice strategy actually. This would mean they are both innocent.
However, this scenario seems unlikely for one reason: How would Anax know to trust Muz with the Vigilante role claim? Anax would have to tell Muz that he was the real Vigilante for this plan to work... How can he trust Muz with this info?? Far too much trust between Muz and Anax right now, and it can't be explained.

I didn't necessarily want Muz lynched. As I've said, I don't know if he's a naive townie, a pupoeted townie, or a mafia. I wanted him to talk, so we'd have more chance of knowing which of the above scenarios is most likely. I was always in favour of no lynch, for reasons explained earlier. People who continue with their vote on me are lynching purely logical thinking and nothing else.

UNLYNCH MUZTHEBUS
It is now Day 8. Please submit your Lynch vote, as well as any Role-specific Day actions you wish to perform (countdown).
Day Actions:
• #LYNCH [player], #NO LYNCH, #ABSTAIN in forum thread.
• Role-specific actions (via PM with V98).





Kyla wrote:
Vote Count:
- (4) Lynch Virtuosity98 (Jimi, Sygmassacre, Anaxagore, elysium5)
- (1) Lynch Jimi (Alexcheckmate)
- (1) Lynch Muzthebus (Hoodlum)

~ about 4 hours till deadline ~
Kyla wrote:
Mod note here:
- Thanks to those making the lynches bold font, could everyone do that, it's helpful :)
- I am open to changing the deadline to suit more people, I could probably do it at my lunch time at 12 (which is 11pm server time), is this better than what it is currently? (which is 5pm for me, 4am server time)
Virtuosity98 wrote:
Please read my previous post if you haven't already :)

About timezones and phase endings:
Hood, Syg: down under - can probably do either...
Jimi: Jordan - can probably do either (just about), depending on his personal schedule
V98, Alex, Anax, Muz: Europe - we probably prefer the change
Ely: new world - can probably do either, depending on his personal schedule

I know I personally don't want to be waiting until 4am local time to see who dies...
Of course this isn't really a problem considering you are all bandwagoning me for little reason... Please read my previous post if you haven't already :)
It is now Day 8. Please submit your Lynch vote, as well as any Role-specific Day actions you wish to perform (countdown).
Day Actions:
• #LYNCH [player], #NO LYNCH, #ABSTAIN in forum thread.
• Role-specific actions (via PM with V98).





Kyla wrote:
OK thanks Virk, day 2 deal line will be 11pm server time, unless there are enough objections. Night 1 will be 4am server time
Sygmassacre wrote:
V98 why would mafia expose themselves when kyla already confirmed vig kill and mafia kill happen simultaneously? Its absolutely ludicrous to think they will give up half their ranks and hope to survive beyond lylo. The only way a vig kill doesnt go through is if the suicide targets them but that only leaves the other which will undoubtedly be muz. So therefore there is absolutely no reason to lynch muz at the risk of killing the vig when he will be exposed after all the night actions have been concluded if he isnt
A Harmonic Generator Intermodulator
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Sygmassacre wrote:
As far as i can see once muz claims, the mafia have to go on the offensive because people will be claiming to him, including the IC and they cannot have that much info in one persons hands. By the time the night ends he would have shared enough info to make the most informed decisions possible. Therefore its in the mafias best interests to have him lynched instead of wasting a kill or suicide on him which only occurs after the info is shared. You may have unlynched but the intent was there and any others on the wagon are suspects too. One of you are mafia and now muz can take aim at whoever is left after the lynch
A Harmonic Generator Intermodulator
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Muzthebus wrote:
i just got home from a party and all i can say is #Lynchv98

see u all tomorrow. where more news will be revealed:)

Cheers
Kyla wrote:
Vote Count:
- (5) Lynch Virtuosity98 (Jimi, Sygmassacre, Anaxagore, elysium5, Muzthebus)
- (1) Lynch Jimi (Alexcheckmate)
- (1) Lynch Muzthebus (Hoodlum)