Yes, I know what a normal distribution is, do you?. Single dice rolls are not normally distributed.
For dice rolls you can only approximate a normal distribution, and you will need a fair amount of them before the approximation is close enough to make sense.
I am going to try to be simple again:
Go to this site:
http://riskodds.com/ .
Fill in a 10 vs 10 attack, the chance to win is about 50%.
Now lets assume you lose the first roll (about 50-50), now fill in the 8 vs 10 attack - wow, suddenly you only have 28.6% chance of winning. Wow, what happened here, how can one simple roll have so much influence??
Well, the variance (for as far as it makes sense to talk about variance in such low rolls) is quite big, and really weird things can happen. Quite often actually
Try the same for winning the first roll (enter 10 vs 8), again, the percentage is far off that pretty 50%.
Apart from that, the probability of losing 1 vs 6 is 0.9%, not 0.15%
Please, if you try to convince us, give us a nice mathematical calculation of what the variance should be according to you, and then calculate what the variance is in this site (using 1000+ rolls please).
Yes, I know what a normal distribution is, do you?. Single dice rolls are not normally distributed.
For dice rolls you can only approximate a normal distribution, and you will need a fair amount of them before the approximation is close enough to make sense.
I am going to try to be simple again:
Go to this site: http://riskodds.com/ .
Fill in a 10 vs 10 attack, the chance to win is about 50%.
Now lets assume you lose the first roll (about 50-50), now fill in the 8 vs 10 attack - wow, suddenly you only have 28.6% chance of winning. Wow, what happened here, how can one simple roll have so much influence??
Well, the variance (for as far as it makes sense to talk about variance in such low rolls) is quite big, and really weird things can happen. Quite often actually ;)
Try the same for winning the first roll (enter 10 vs 8), again, the percentage is far off that pretty 50%.
Apart from that, the probability of losing 1 vs 6 is 0.9%, not 0.15%
Please, if you try to convince us, give us a nice mathematical calculation of what the variance should be according to you, and then calculate what the variance is in this site (using 1000+ rolls please).
"Strength doesn't lie in numbers, strength doesn't lie in wealth. Strength lies in nights of peaceful slumbers." ~Maria