An exploration of randomness.
  • 266 posts
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Matty wrote:
Well, its the randomness that gives these series.
Try rolling 10.000 times with real dice at home, and you will see the same results (apart from getting bored to death).
"Strength doesn't lie in numbers, strength doesn't lie in wealth. Strength lies in nights of peaceful slumbers." ~Maria
Vexer wrote:
It sounds like tryitonce didn't read that article that scaldwell17 linked to:
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2009/04/21/pareidolia-poser/#.UU9IkxzrxAp

Randomness is clumpy therefore if a site's dice are accurate then you should be getting clumps of bad dice here and there like tryitonce described.

If dominategame.com doesn't have this clumpyness then their dice are fake.

We plan to get our own fake dice because I agree with tryitonce. The game is better without the clumpyness of bad or good dice. Skilled players win more when the dice are more predictable. But unlike other sites, our fake dice will be a game option and not automatic.
tryitonce wrote:
:-)

What good is for one, is bad for the other. I suggest we make two groups: one which has good dice and one which have bad dice; and then they for sure are in balance ...............
satsousa wrote:
in 3 vs 1 dices the chance of the defender wins is 33,71%, the chances of winning 5 troops is 0,43% winning 6 troops is 0,14% winning 7 troops is 0.05% and winning 8 troops is 0.0167%
how many times do you see these situations? many more then those that statistics demontrate. the chances of happen in a game two of those are really low, like winning lottery twice in a row
Vexer wrote:
You can't just say that it happens many more times than those statistics demonstrate. You have no proof you haven't kept track except in your head.

Even if it happens to you more often then it should that just means you are unlucky. It does not mean the dice are not accurate. It's only a problem if it happens too often to every player, not just one. You are an outlier. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outlier Outliers are normal and expected in any random distribution.
Matty wrote:
You are a human. Humans tend to remember bad things, and forget the good things.
If you would keep your own personal log, you would see your dice are, in fact, normal.

Holt for example is a really good player, who knows this principle.
But even he complained about dice in a game I was in.
I checked the log, added up all armies he killed, and the armies he lost.
He ended up losing 2 more armies than he won. That's nothing, as in normal situations you would kill 2 more armies than you lost. So in total just 4 bad dice rolls extra.
It's just that if you kill 10 losing 2, you don't really notice. You start noticing when you kill 2 and lose 10.
I have the same problem myself, as Holt had there. I sometimes are terribly annoyed because of bad dice, and then when I check the log a day later I actually killed more than I lost. That's just how a human brain works.

But maybe you just are an unlucky person, it is possible, as it is with all true randomness.
"Strength doesn't lie in numbers, strength doesn't lie in wealth. Strength lies in nights of peaceful slumbers." ~Maria
elysium5 wrote:
Play Yatzee a few times and you will see that you have some overly lucky games and some really cryaptzee ones as well.
"I can picture in my mind a world without war, a world without hate. And I can picture us attacking that world, because they'd never expect it."
satsousa wrote:
the blinder one is the one who does not want to see...

ill start posting here everytime i see 3 vs 1 and lost more then 6 troops...
outliers can happen but not too often if very often they stop beeing outliers
Matty wrote:
Please don't spam the entire topic, by making a new post for every roll, and keep a personal list :)

Apart from that, to make it fair, you should not only note bad rolls, but also something to compare with (like the total amount of 3v1's that you roll).
If you lose 100 3v1's, out of 200 rolls, that is bad luck indeed.
If you lose 100 3v1's out of 900 rolls, that is not bad luck at all.
"Strength doesn't lie in numbers, strength doesn't lie in wealth. Strength lies in nights of peaceful slumbers." ~Maria
satsousa wrote:
Fort Meyers (satsousa) attacks Palm Beach (Neutral) killing 0 troops, losing 10.
Juventud (Stephenruc) attacks Havana (satsousa) conquering it, killing 8 troops, losing 2.

only 3 turn game because of dices.
Game 117657 
1st example
Vexer wrote:
You don't get it satsousa. You can't just cherry pick your worst dice and post them as evidence. You have track all your dice good and bad and look at the average and make sure it's correct.
killrick wrote:
i love this subject post...its where everyone can go whine when they get crappy rolls
we should call this the snivellers forum
go snake eyes
satsousa wrote:
vexer you are the one that doesnt get it... already told several times that its not about losing the rolls...
it doesnt matter if i win or lose, its not predictable that in same game it happens 2,3,4,5,6 times situations of 3 vs 2 14-0 or 3vs1 0-6
for example

ill post even the good rolls, im not whining, i dont care if good or bad rolls, i just think for the good of the game that they should be better.
what is the part of getting a better site you dont all understand?
There are other sites with the game that have way better dice system.
This site beeing a lot better then others could IMO improve but you get stuck in it and so lets not improve and not make criticism to it so nobody gets annoyed

Matty wrote:
I have a question to you about what you are trying to say (or proof, or whatever)

are you saying that
A) our dice are unfair and not like real dice
or
B) our dice are fair, but you prefer fake dice that do not give bad rolls that often
?
"Strength doesn't lie in numbers, strength doesn't lie in wealth. Strength lies in nights of peaceful slumbers." ~Maria