tip from expert skill plays
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GhostRisk wrote:
ok, still learn. please advice. how to play when luck bad? no get rolls. please how expert do?
Matty wrote:
I am working on a good tutorial myself, but it could take some weeks.

Untill then, try to find out what battles you have a good chance of winning - and read some of the tutorials in this part of the forum.
This one is a long read, but a pretty good one.

If you want to know what battles you can win, try this calculator: http://riskodds.com/index.php
Fill in 25 vs 25 for example and you will see that if you try it a 100 times, you'd win about 60 of them. Of course, this is for one territory vs one territory, for more it's more complicated.
(Note: 60% is bad).

Notice that the smaller the battles are, the easier odds do weird things. Good players always think: "if this attack fails, what do I do then" - even before they start the attack.
"Strength doesn't lie in numbers, strength doesn't lie in wealth. Strenght lies in nights of peaceful slumbers." ~Maria
Augustus wrote:
If your rolls are bad, and you're one of the weaker players, play defensively until you can recover. Don't let yourself get too weak to get killed off.
aeronautic wrote:
Good advice Augustus. Dice are our friend and our enemy, but reinforcements are just friends, don't burn out, recover and regroup. I have won DM games with just 1 troop remaining (in the fog) and I bet most of the experienced players have too.
Watch, Wait & Win.
Hyd yn oed er fy mod Cymraeg , dim ond yn siarad Saesneg, felly yr wyf yn gobeithio y bydd y cyfieithu yn gywir.
HammerTime wrote:
I have noticed that when I'm attacking and I'm losing every roll..I switch to another army(if I have one)and attack with it once in twice..then go back to the army I was failing with..and I find it changes things up ..I have had better dice doing this ...have been doing this for over a year now..an it does work(for me)more times then it doesn't..
Luck,is the defining factor of a good strategy
cbt711 wrote:
This is a good question, where as most will just say "it happens", or "it evens out in the end", I had never really thought of what I specifically do when dice go south. Also I haven't written a guide in a long time, so here goes, broken down by situation

Bad dice early deathmatch:

Consolidate into two armies
When you have one large army consolidated in a small area, it is bad in two ways. You are seen as TWICE the threat as that same army split in two. A big army at the end of the game can usually sweep the board if timed well with card turn ins... you never want to be seen as a threat. The other downside is you are very easy to kill in just one area. Anyone bordering you with a big turn in can end your game.

Don't pick fights
Don't go out of your way to break region bonuses of the players around you. It will cause some revenge fighting. Killing 7 on a border of a +2 region might only lose you 5 troops. So you think it will even out in 3 turns, because he will be 6 troops weaker. Well don't forget he or she will come after that border territory and usually in force, so you have to consider the blow back. If dice have crippled you early, don't pick fights or break bonuses. If anything draw attention to the rest of the players how strong you neighbor is in chat. :) And maybe inspire anyone else to fight over the bonus. Your focus should be killing 1's and timing your cards.

Bad dice Late Deathmatch

Use math.
 If the dice go south on a run at a player for his/her cards, and it's not going well. STOP. The math is discussed in my deathmatch tutorial in detail so I won't bring it up again. But once the math turns on you, don't be stubborn. Stop and save as much of your troops as you can.

Immediately turn to the defensive.
 You can fortify your big attacking army back into the middle of your other troops to block it, showing everyone you are licking your wounds, and not going to attack again any time soon. You should also look attack around player's borders so that if they do come after you and kill you it would require trapping themselves. Though this is more of a Capitals strategy.

Bad dice during game play - Caps

Bridge your troops to cap
 So you lost all of your satellite troops to bad dice? That is no fun, but it does happen. Attack outward form your cap against 1's. Do not trap yourself, but extend your territory as far as you can leaving a path open to your cap. The trick here is to keep those territories all connected back to the cap, so all troops left over can fortify back to cap. Use some common sense. Everyone is farming cards early. Find someone near cap that can trade a territory back and forth, and gladly comply. You can even offer to "farm" said territory, and most of the time they will happily comply. Easy cards for killing 1 troop is hard to turn down.

4 vs. 1 when you can. Place two on cap, and 1 on a satellite with 3 troops to make SURE you get that card. So many people assume 3v. 1 is a kill - those people are wrong 30% of the time. Then what? It also helps keep your satellite troop at 3 troops if it does make the kill first try so it lives to fight another day.

Attack back to Cap with your biggest satellite army it it is nearby. Create one by fortifying two 3's into a 5, add to it each turn +1 or two and the rest on cap. Keep it moving gets you cards, and when you do get it back to cap, it's a huge boost to cap strength.

Stay one card behind. Dangerous if you are forced to go to 5 cards, but otherwise you want to be the last player to reach a card number. This helps you get more troops each turn in, and it avoids you having 4 cards to the next player's 3 while you are weak from bad dice, then they can kill you for two sets. Yes this means DO NOT TAKE A CARD when everyone is at 3, and there are players with 3 behind you if you are weak enough to kill from bad dice. Patience.

Bad dice during end game - Caps
Again use math, and STOP attacking when it goes south. Now in caps you can do a few last minute hail mary moves to save yourself when outnumbered. You can attack around other caps, so they would be trapped if they kill you. You can trap yourself (very desperate move, only way to win is someone else screwing up in this case) so no one sees you as a threat. Stop taking cards entirely so there's no reason to kill you - again, impossible to win like this unless someone ahead of you just really screws up. But a large portion of caps games are won on failed kills, so at least you're alive to take advantage should that happen.

General Tactics in all situations

Only attack 1's. Avoid attacking 1 with 3, you get one shot, then you bleed off 2 troops at a time and get no cards when the 2 on 1 fails. 4 v. 1 is just better strategic fighting, same as the caps advice.

Avoid conflicts. Every troop you don't lose in retaliation is just as important as each troop you prevent the opponent from getting in bonus. The opposite applies, if everyone else is being really passive like this point implies, then use that to get a bonus and no one will pick a fight for the same reasoning. If it's a super aggressive group that breaks bonus, then don't take a region. Simple enough. Play the players first, then the board, then the dice / luck variance.

Good luck.
HammerTime wrote:
Nice post CBT,very informative !!

 Like Kenny Rogers almost sang...gotta know when to holdem ..an know when to rollem :)
Luck,is the defining factor of a good strategy