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 Posted: 27 Jul 2014, 01:41 am
 Modified: 27 Jul 2014, 01:43 am

Post #1
I have noticed there's quite a bit of resources out there dealing with RISKlike game probabilities. Some of these try to make predictions based on total army sizes (there's a much cited paper by Tan from 1998, and this comment by Osborne)  which are ultimately useless since no apt RISK player would ever autoattack. Some others such as this "odds calculator" simply provide wrong values and do not account for "ties".
I took the time to write a free/open source script which either uses fast formulaic contractions or an exhaustive lookup function to determine singleattack odds given the number of dice the defender and the attacker roll, and even the number of sides on the dice! (which I think is interesting since I have always wondered whether the game could be improved by using a different number of dice faces or a different number of attacker/defender caps)
[b]Here's a tutorial article[/b] about the script explaining among other things the formulae. There is also an odds table at the end showing you what kind of attacks are favourable (solely based on the number of troops, and not accounting for the strategic context  though I am also working on a tutorial which uses the odds info for strategy tips).
I took the time to write a free/open source script which either uses fast formulaic contractions or an exhaustive lookup function to determine singleattack odds given the number of dice the defender and the attacker roll, and even the number of sides on the dice! (which I think is interesting since I have always wondered whether the game could be improved by using a different number of dice faces or a different number of attacker/defender caps)
[b]Here's a tutorial article[/b] about the script explaining among other things the formulae. There is also an odds table at the end showing you what kind of attacks are favourable (solely based on the number of troops, and not accounting for the strategic context  though I am also working on a tutorial which uses the odds info for strategy tips).