It's simple math. When you attack you will win in a slightly favored ratio of 54/46 on average over time.
The reason you lose playing super aggressive early is simple. You still lose about half the troops you have involved in any fight. So if you are fighting every turn and the other players on average are fighting much less, then you will lose troop numbers at a greater rate than everyone else.
You might kill more than you lose, but that is just one other player, while all other players not involved benefit. The only time it is a good idea to attack in a super aggressive manor is when it is down to two players. In this case, the slight advantage in attacking is huge, because everything you take from them you gain. Even if there are 3 players, you being aggressive only hurts the player you attack, and the third player gets to sit back and watch his two opponents lose troops. Even if you balance your attacks between two other players, you will lose more than they do since you have to split your fighting evenly between them but you still lose troops every fight.
Also fighting early 3 on 3 is certain death. You actually get less dice when you have low numbers of troops, 2 dice with 2, and 1 die with 1 troop. So your odds are greatly diminished with low numbers on the board early. This is another reason it seems attacking is better late in the game. Statistically, it is since you have more 3 on 2 chances per attack.
It's simple math. When you attack you will win in a slightly favored ratio of 54/46 on average over time.
The reason you lose playing super aggressive early is simple. You still lose about half the troops you have involved in any fight. So if you are fighting every turn and the other players on average are fighting much less, then you will lose troop numbers at a greater rate than everyone else.
You might kill more than you lose, but that is just one other player, while all other players not involved benefit. The only time it is a good idea to attack in a super aggressive manor is when it is down to two players. In this case, the slight advantage in attacking is huge, because everything you take from them you gain. Even if there are 3 players, you being aggressive only hurts the player you attack, and the third player gets to sit back and watch his two opponents lose troops. Even if you balance your attacks between two other players, you will lose more than they do since you have to split your fighting evenly between them but you still lose troops every fight.
Also fighting early 3 on 3 is certain death. You actually get less dice when you have low numbers of troops, 2 dice with 2, and 1 die with 1 troop. So your odds are greatly diminished with low numbers on the board early. This is another reason it seems attacking is better late in the game. Statistically, it is since you have more 3 on 2 chances per attack.
